Should I Fix My Energy Before January 2027?
With bills forecast to rise again, here’s how to decide whether a fixed tariff makes sense for you.
The short version: the price cap is £1,723 a year now and is forecast to reach £1,999–£2,165 in January 2027. If you can fix for less than that, fixing is likely to save you money over the winter — and gives you certainty whatever happens.
What’s Happening to Prices
The Ofgem price cap rose 4% to £1,723 a year from 1 October 2026. Forecasters expect a further rise of 16–26% from 1 January 2027, mainly because of higher wholesale gas prices. Ofgem confirms the figure in late November 2026.
See the full forecasts and sources →
Fixed vs Variable: The Pros and Cons
Fixing
- Your rates can’t go up during the deal
- Easier budgeting over winter
- Most Octopus fixes have no exit fees
- Could cost more if prices fall
- Fixes are often priced with expected rises already built in
Staying variable
- You benefit straight away if the cap falls
- No need to compare deals
- Your bill rises when the cap rises
- Changes every three months
- Harder to plan ahead
How to Tell If a Fix Is Worth It
- Get a quote for the fixed tariff with your postcode and real usage (it’s on your bill in kWh).
- Get the equivalent variable price in the same quote — that’s what you’d pay on the cap today.
- Compare against the forecast cap. Increase the variable price by 16–26% to estimate your bill from January 2027. Our calculator does this for you.
- Check the small print: length of the fix, exit fees, and the standing charge — a cheap unit rate can hide a high standing charge.
When Fixing Usually Makes Sense
- The fixed annual cost is at or below the forecast cap for your usage.
- You value certainty and want to know exactly what you’ll pay this winter.
- The fix has no (or low) exit fees, so you aren’t trapped if prices fall.
When Staying Variable Might Be Better
- The only fixes available are priced well above the forecast cap.
- You expect to move home soon.
- You have a smart meter and can shift usage to cheaper times on a tariff like Agile or Intelligent Octopus Go. See Octopus tariffs.
Compare Octopus fixed and variable prices for your home. A quote takes about 2 minutes and there’s no obligation. If you switch through our link, you’ll get £50 credit on your account.
Get My Octopus Quote →Fixing FAQs
Should I fix my energy before January 2027?
If a fixed deal costs less than the price cap is forecast to be from January 2027, fixing could save you money and gives you certainty. If the fix is priced above where the cap ends up, you could pay more. Compare the fixed annual cost in your quote with the figures on our price cap page.
Are there exit fees on Octopus fixed tariffs?
Most Octopus fixed tariffs have had no exit fees, which means you can usually leave if prices fall. Always check the tariff details in your quote before you sign up.
What happens when my fix ends?
You’ll usually move to your supplier’s standard variable tariff, which follows the price cap. Your supplier must contact you before the end date, and you can switch without exit fees in the last 49 days.
Does fixing lock the standing charge too?
On most fixed tariffs, yes — both the unit rates and the daily standing charge are fixed for the length of the deal. Check the tariff information label to confirm.
Can I fix if I switch to Octopus with a referral?
Yes. The referral credit applies whichever tariff you choose, fixed or variable. You get £50 credit once your switch completes.
This guide is general information, not financial advice. Prices and forecasts change; always check the details in your quote.